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RBA Rate Indicator – November 2022
What is the RBA Rate Indicator?
The RBA Rate Indicator shows market expectations of a change in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) set by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The indicator calculates a percentage probability of an RBA interest rate change based on the market determined prices in the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures.
The table below illustrates how market expectations of an interest rate change at the next RBA Board meeting have changed in the last few days. The RBA Rate Indicator is updated at the end of each business day so you can see any change in expectations after each trading day.
The RBA rate indicator provides market participants and commentators with a market monitor for official cash rate expectations in Australia
What is the RBA Rate Indicator saying today?
On the 4th October the RBA increased the official cash rate by 0.25%. The current official cash rate as determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is 2.60%.
The next RBA Board meeting and Official Cash Rate announcement will be on the 1st November 2022.
As at 14 October, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures November 2022 contract was trading at 97.205, indicating a 80% expectation of an interest rate increase to 2.85% at the next RBA Board meeting.
The table below highlights how market expectations of an interest rate decrease at the next RBA Board meeting has evolved in recent days.
| Trading Day | No Change | Increase to 2.85% |
| 5 October | 26% | 74% |
| 6 October | 22% | 78% |
| 7 October | 18% | 82% |
| 10 October | 15% | 85% |
| 11 October | 20% | 80% |
| 12 October | 28% | 72% |
| 13 October | 32% | 68% |
| 14 October | 20% | 80% |
- ASX Rate Indicator calculation
- Graph on implied expectation of Change to Target Cash Rate for November 2022 Expiry Month
- Current Cash Rate Futures yield curve and implied expectations of changes to the Official Cash Rate for the next 18 months
Disclaimer: This information is indicative only. It is not investment advice and readers should seek their own professional advice in assessing the effect of the information in their circumstances. ASX Limited and its related corporations accept no responsibility for errors or omissions, including negligence, or for any damage loss or claim arising from reliance on the information. Futures and options trading involves the potential for both profits and losses and only licensed brokers and advisors can advise on this risk.